A New Shogunate? Democratic Reductionism and Elite Capture in Contemporary Japan

Abstract

This article analyzes Japan’s new grand strategy under the administration of Sanae Takaichi, questioning electoral reductionism through the concept of “Elite state capture”. Through a prosopographic analysis of the main ministerial portfolios since 2001, it examines how access to public power is conditioned by family lineages (Sh¯ushi), university clans (Gakubatsu) and the corporate support of the nation’s most important business conglomerate (Keiretsu). The results reveal an educational oligopoly concentrated in the “Golden Triangle” (University of Tokyo, Kei¯o and Waseda) and a bifurcation in postgraduate studies that balances transnational legitimation with the endogenous indoctrination of the Matsushita Institute. Finally, it is demonstrated how this endogamous structure instrumentalizes the global rare earth supply crisis vis-á-vis China and maritime securitization within the framework of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) to justify the expansion of defense spending. It is concluded that the country operates a systematic transition from post-war constitutional pacifism to dynastic militarist realism, whose final objective is the reform of Article 9 of the Constitution.