The Post-Castro Cuba Between Transition And Continuity

Abstract

The political reality of Cuba will change with the physical disappearance of the founders of the communist regime, and this could have effects on Latin American politics. Understanding the possible scenarios that can be configured in the future in post-Castro Cuba is the main objective of this work. The main variables that may intervene in Cuban politics after the Castro brothers come out of power, favoring a possible scenario of transition towards democracy or, on the contrary, the adaptation of the post-totalitarian regime to the new reality, will be analyzed. effects of the biological variable, which refers to the age of the founding political class of the communist regime, the geopolitical variable, particularly US foreign policy, and the role played by the economy and sources of financing, in the permanence Cuban communist regime. In addition, the scenario of post-Castro Cuba is compared with other similar political processes that occurred in communist regimes, such as the USSR, to conclude by exposing the equation of the Cuban transition